The Characteristics and Environments of Future Supercell Thunderstorms in the Great Plains

Supercell thunderstorms occur most frequently in the Great Plains region of the central United States, and are often responsible for extreme severe weather, including the majority of violent tornadoes and large hail. Given the societal implications, this study bridges the long-term climate scale and shorter-term storm-scale through exploration of how a future warmer, moister climate influences supercell behavior, characteristics, and potential severe weather production. The future near-supercell environment shifted towards more favorable severe weather conditions with a net increase in magnitude and vertical nature of convective available potential energy and convective inhibition, along with surprising changes in near-storm kinematics and wind fields. Using fine-scale idealized simulations, future supercells were found to be slightly shorter lived and stronger in intensity but also “less efficient” at converting their environment into notable strengthening. These fine scale simulations showed that while increases in favorable supercell environments are expected, the storm scale impact does not necessarily translate to proportional changes in supercell behavior or characteristics.