URBAN DYNAMICS: LONGITUDINAL CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AND FUTURE TIME SERIES FORECASTING

Studying urban dynamics is essential given the ever-increasing changes in urban areas with all its ensuing consequences, whether negative or positive. It is of paramount importance to take into account the temporal dimension of urban dynamics when studying its patterns and processes. Nevertheless, the majority of studies overlook this consideration and take cross-sectional research approaches. Moreover, a large body of literature in urban dynamics is dedicated to the explanatory analysis and causal inference only, neglecting the importance of predictive analysis. Addressing these two main gaps, this research explores urban dynamics through both causal inference and predictive modeling using longitudinal research designs. Urban dynamics are studied from two aspects in this work; transportation/land-use interactions, and economic growth. In the first article, the impact of built environment on commuting duration is assessed in 2000 and 2015 in Mecklenburg County, NC using spatial panel data models. Results show that the built environment has a statistically significant impact on commuting duration. However, it is important to note that the practical magnitude of the impact is small. In the second and third articles, the business performance of businesses are forecasted for non-business services and business services respectively in Mecklenburg County, NC, using recurrent neural networks long short-term memory deep learning method. After building and training the sequential model, its predictive performance is assessed using out-of-sample evaluation.