This dissertation investigates the impact of a need-based summer grant on academic progression and bachelor’s degree attainment among low-income undergraduate students at a large public university in North Carolina. Using a quasi-experimental design, the study applies 1:1 nearest neighbor propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to administrative data from four cohorts (n = 8,249), comparing students who received the summer grant with similar peers who did not. The primary outcomes examined are the accumulation of at least 30 credit hours by the end of the summer term (a key indicator of academic momentum) and bachelor’s degree completion within the study window.
Results indicate that receipt of the summer grant had a statistically significant and medium-sized positive effect on students’ likelihood of earning at least 30 credit hours by the end of the academic year (χ²(1)=705.11, p<0.001, φ=0.54), supporting the grant’s effectiveness in fueling early academic momentum. The effect on bachelor’s degree completion was positive but smaller (χ²(1)=20.39, p<0.001, φ=0.09), suggesting that while the grant supports timely credit accumulation, its direct impact on degree attainment is more modest. IPTW analyses yielded an average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) of 0.544 (SE = 0.012; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.58) for credit accumulation and 0.053 (SE = 0.009; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.07) for degree completion. Subgroup analyses by year, including the COVID-19 pandemic period, showed consistent effects on credit accumulation but no statistically significant differences for degree completion or time to degree.
These findings contribute to the literature on academic momentum and need-based aid, demonstrating that targeted summer financial support can effectively help low-income students reach critical credit milestones, though additional support may be necessary to translate early momentum into higher graduation rates. The study offers evidence to inform state and institutional policy on the design and timing of financial aid interventions aimed at improving student progression and completion outcomes. The study discussion includes insights into identifying confounding variables and comparing PSM and IPTW approaches for estimating causal effects with observational data.